Who's betting on “Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 70% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 31 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $15K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.5K by 60 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 70% 33 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 38% 27 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 95¢ and No at 5¢, a 95% implied chance of Yes. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
70% of the money on Yes and 38% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 31 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 38 points. A week ago, Yes by 47 points.
Who holds it
60 wallets hold a position worth $1.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 60 of them. The largest Yes holder is anciano, with $636 on it, $37K lifetime profit over 1,299 markets (49% won). The largest No holder is pompey, with $17 on it, $4.8K lifetime loss over 35 markets (51% won).
- Holders
- 33
- Money on it
- $1.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 55%
- Holders
- 27
- Money on it
- $77
- Holders' win rate
- 58%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.5K on it
- 1anciano49% won of 1,299 · whale$636+$37K lifetime
- 2varch0168% won of 1,163$107−$45K lifetime
- 3i2dt71% won of 356 · whale$105+$17K lifetime
- 4rightcryptor0% won of 1$105−$0 lifetime
- 5bernardbulletin75% won of 1,126 · whale$104+$198K lifetime
No$77 on it
- 1pompey51% won of 35$17−$4.8K lifetime
- 2xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,253 · noise$15+$255K lifetime
- 3b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.98% won of 3,362 · whale$6+$22K lifetime
- 4mcphearson9946% won of 217$6−$18 lifetime
- 5Ddiggerno record yet$6−$5 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
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- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?"?
60 wallets hold a position worth $1.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 60 of them. The largest Yes holder is anciano, with $636 on it, $37K lifetime profit over 1,299 markets (49% won). The largest No holder is pompey, with $17 on it, $4.8K lifetime loss over 35 markets (51% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 95¢ and No at 5¢, a 95% implied chance of Yes. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
70% of the money on Yes and 38% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 31 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 38 points. A week ago, Yes by 47 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.