Who's betting on “Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?”?
Smart money leans No: 86% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 20 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $46K traded all time
- Held now
- $7.6K by 126 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 66% 86 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 86% 40 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 91¢ and No at 9¢, a 91% implied chance of Yes. $46K has been traded on it.
The smart money
66% of the money on Yes and 86% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 20 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 32 points. A week ago, Yes by 8 points.
Who holds it
126 wallets hold a position worth $7.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 126 of them. The largest Yes holder is SnapElectionAvoider, with $2.5K on it, $203K lifetime profit over 2,239 markets (48% won). The largest No holder is rocky42010, with $112 on it, $14K lifetime profit over 658 markets (56% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $0 on Yes.
- Holders
- 86
- Money on it
- $7.3K
- Holders' win rate
- 47%
- Snipers
- 1 · $0
- Holders
- 40
- Money on it
- $321
- Holders' win rate
- 45%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$7.3K on it
- 1SnapElectionAvoider48% won of 2,239 · whale$2.5K+$203K lifetime
- 2richardd40% won of 642$1.7K−$3.0K lifetime
- 3Arman265% won of 334 · whale$830+$100 lifetime
- 4neverhackme31% won of 14,831 · noise$544+$7.7K lifetime
- 5anciano49% won of 1,299 · whale$181+$37K lifetime
No$321 on it
- 1rocky4201056% won of 658 · whale$112+$14K lifetime
- 2Nadmi35% won of 1,251 · noise$75+$154K lifetime
- 3xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,235 · noise$35+$255K lifetime
- 4LornaPredicts28% won of 15,840 · noise$34+$27K lifetime
- 5Geromi53% won of 237$19−$17K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?"?
126 wallets hold a position worth $7.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 126 of them. The largest Yes holder is SnapElectionAvoider, with $2.5K on it, $203K lifetime profit over 2,239 markets (48% won). The largest No holder is rocky42010, with $112 on it, $14K lifetime profit over 658 markets (56% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 91¢ and No at 9¢, a 91% implied chance of Yes. $46K has been traded on it.
Which side is the smart money on?
66% of the money on Yes and 86% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 20 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 32 points. A week ago, Yes by 8 points.
When does this market end?
Polymarket has not set an end date for it.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.