Who's betting on “Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 90% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 17 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $45K traded all time
- Held now
- $392 by 74 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 90% 64 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 73% 10 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $45K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2028.
The smart money
90% of the money on Yes and 73% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 17 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 83 points. A week ago, Yes by 32 points.
Who holds it
74 wallets hold a position worth $392 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 74 of them. The largest Yes holder is Ondra, with $202 on it, $21K lifetime profit over 212 markets (62% won). The largest No holder is Elias.Thornwell, with $10 on it, $570 lifetime profit over 3,134 markets (69% won).
- Holders
- 64
- Money on it
- $376
- Holders' win rate
- 64%
- Holders
- 10
- Money on it
- $16
- Holders' win rate
- 60%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$376 on it
- 1Ondra62% won of 212 · whale$202+$21K lifetime
- 20x75772c0fad8BB3EeFb12bAe32EeF8a58e7EE8fB9-177115719040396% won of 49 · grinder$39+$1.9K lifetime
- 30xff7c…b23367% won of 500 · whale$18+$61K lifetime
- 4bai12810% won of 2$14+$18 lifetime
- 5thecaricature44% won of 717$12−$7.9K lifetime
No$16 on it
- 1Elias.Thornwell69% won of 3,134 · whale$10+$570 lifetime
- 20x78b3…6dda55% won of 276$3−$69 lifetime
- 3Youi-08050% won of 24$1−$6 lifetime
- 40x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-17788112810239% won of 32,386 · noise$1+$82K lifetime
- 5sdfsdfsdfsdf21% won of 23,316$0−$119K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
6 more- 1.5T+$163K vol.Yes 40%No 60%Smart money: No
- 1T–1.25T$103K vol.Yes 10%No 90%Smart money: Yes
- No IPO by December 31, 2027$102K vol.Yes 22%No 78%Smart money: No
- 1.25T–1.5T$83K vol.Yes 11%No 89%Smart money: No
- 750B–1T$76K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: Yes
- 500–750B$31K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?"?
74 wallets hold a position worth $392 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 74 of them. The largest Yes holder is Ondra, with $202 on it, $21K lifetime profit over 212 markets (62% won). The largest No holder is Elias.Thornwell, with $10 on it, $570 lifetime profit over 3,134 markets (69% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $45K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2028.
Which side is the smart money on?
90% of the money on Yes and 73% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 17 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 83 points. A week ago, Yes by 32 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2028. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.