Who's betting on “Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?”?
Smart money leans No: 93% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 35 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $163K traded all time
- Held now
- $13K by 123 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 58% 77 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 93% 45 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 40¢ and No at 60¢, a 60% implied chance of No. $163K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2028.
The smart money
58% of the money on Yes and 93% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 35 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 27 points. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
123 wallets hold a position worth $13K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 122 of them. The largest Yes holder is zoootic, with $2.8K on it, $7.0K lifetime loss over 201 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is Albert 1953, with $2.3K on it, $258K lifetime profit over 215 markets (87% won).
- Holders
- 78
- Money on it
- $11K
- Holders' win rate
- 58%
- Holders
- 45
- Money on it
- $2.9K
- Holders' win rate
- 80%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$11K on it
- 1zoootic53% won of 201$2.8K−$7.0K lifetime
- 2Contentious-Dinnerdate67% won of 1,087 · whale$961+$104K lifetime
- 3MaxEnt41% won of 365 · noise$829+$816 lifetime
- 40xD173AB800A5661c1086A2fC2D350300610B71B86-178127857135592% won of 12$807+$2.3K lifetime
- 50xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,148 · noise$714+$334K lifetime
No$2.9K on it
- 1Albert 195387% won of 215 · whale$2.3K+$258K lifetime
- 2DerDon56% won of 1,234 · whale$176+$95K lifetime
- 3Leclerc0451% won of 1,214 · balanced$60+$3.8K lifetime
- 4vonhalen36% won of 455$57−$728 lifetime
- 50x8144…847211% won of 206$54−$12K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
6 more- 1T–1.25T$103K vol.Yes 10%No 90%Smart money: Yes
- No IPO by December 31, 2027$102K vol.Yes 22%No 78%Smart money: No
- 1.25T–1.5T$83K vol.Yes 11%No 89%Smart money: No
- 750B–1T$76K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: Yes
- <500B$45K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- 500–750B$31K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?"?
123 wallets hold a position worth $13K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 122 of them. The largest Yes holder is zoootic, with $2.8K on it, $7.0K lifetime loss over 201 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is Albert 1953, with $2.3K on it, $258K lifetime profit over 215 markets (87% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 40¢ and No at 60¢, a 60% implied chance of No. $163K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2028.
Which side is the smart money on?
58% of the money on Yes and 93% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 35 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 27 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2028. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.