Who's betting on “Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?”?
Finance · $164K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $164K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
76% of the money on Yes and 53% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 23 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 23 points. A week ago, Yes by 21 points.
293 wallets hold a position worth $3.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 293 of them. The largest Yes holder is occasionalAwareness, with $47 on it, $1.1M lifetime profit over 1,003 markets (63% won). The largest No holder is BurstedBubble, with $953 on it, $45K lifetime loss over 2 markets (100% won).
- Smart money share
- 76%
- Holders
- 207
- Money on it
- $474
- Holders' winrate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 53%
- Holders
- 86
- Money on it
- $2.8K
- Holders' winrate
- 77%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| occasionalAwarenesswhale | $47 | +$1.1M | 63% of 1,003 |
| jpurd17 | $38 | +$2.0K | 100% of 9 |
| nryybalanced | $26 | +$161 | 59% of 202 |
| ImJustKenwhale | $22 | +$2.3M | 65% of 1,065 |
| balthazarwhale | $19 | +$1.2M | 53% of 44,054 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| BurstedBubble | $953 | -$45K | 100% of 2 |
| suavejonasbalanced | $630 | +$2.8K | 76% of 91 |
| Dimpled-Foalwhale | $493 | +$65K | 85% of 274 |
| infrustration | $181 | -$1.0K | 91% of 11 |
| 0x4935…dfdabalanced | $78 | +$3.2K | 97% of 33 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?"?
293 wallets hold a position worth $3.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 293 of them. The largest Yes holder is occasionalAwareness, with $47 on it, $1.1M lifetime profit over 1,003 markets (63% won). The largest No holder is BurstedBubble, with $953 on it, $45K lifetime loss over 2 markets (100% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $164K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
76% of the money on Yes and 53% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 23 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 23 points. A week ago, Yes by 21 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.