Who's betting on “Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?”?
Finance · $834K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 96¢ and No at 4¢, a 96% implied chance of Yes. $834K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
88% of the money on Yes and 54% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 34 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 34 points. A week ago it was split.
586 wallets hold a position worth $111K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 585 of them. The largest Yes holder is schizohedgehog, with $35K on it, $164K lifetime profit over 65 markets (80% won). The largest No holder is 101456, with $867 on it, $15K lifetime profit over 265 markets (60% won).
- Smart money share
- 88%
- Holders
- 372
- Money on it
- $109K
- Holders' winrate
- 68%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 54%
- Holders
- 214
- Money on it
- $2.7K
- Holders' winrate
- 54%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| schizohedgehogwhale | $35K | +$164K | 80% of 65 |
| Folletinwhale | $12K | +$73K | 73% of 670 |
| ImJustKenwhale | $7.0K | +$2.3M | 65% of 1,065 |
| StupidMonkeyyywhale | $6.2K | +$6.3K | 49% of 244 |
| 0x64a2…a495 | $4.3K | -$5.7K | 0% of 17 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101456balanced | $867 | +$15K | 60% of 265 |
| 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758 | $857 | -$7.0K | 50% of 604 |
| Nadminoise | $127 | +$147K | 34% of 1,203 |
| stpocinbalanced | $98 | +$910 | 51% of 200 |
| 99problems123 | $63 | -$95K | 53% of 339 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.1M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?"?
586 wallets hold a position worth $111K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 585 of them. The largest Yes holder is schizohedgehog, with $35K on it, $164K lifetime profit over 65 markets (80% won). The largest No holder is 101456, with $867 on it, $15K lifetime profit over 265 markets (60% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 96¢ and No at 4¢, a 96% implied chance of Yes. $834K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
88% of the money on Yes and 54% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 34 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 34 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.