Who's betting on “Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?”?
Finance · $536K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $536K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
69% of the money on Yes and 68% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 19 points.
278 wallets hold a position worth $466 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 278 of them. The largest Yes holder is jpurd17, with $9 on it, $1.3K lifetime profit over 9 markets (100% won). The largest No holder is Elias.Thornwell, with $90 on it, $4.5K lifetime profit over 2,940 markets (69% won).
- Smart money share
- 69%
- Holders
- 206
- Money on it
- $149
- Holders' winrate
- 57%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 68%
- Holders
- 72
- Money on it
- $317
- Holders' winrate
- 76%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| jpurd17 | $9 | +$1.3K | 100% of 9 |
| nryybalanced | $8 | +$161 | 59% of 202 |
| FlexPowernoise | $8 | +$22K | 18% of 2,205 |
| anotherday | $7 | -$2.1K | 42% of 26 |
| balthazarwhale | $6 | +$1.2M | 53% of 44,054 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elias.Thornwellwhale | $90 | +$4.5K | 69% of 2,940 |
| suavejonasbalanced | $42 | +$2.8K | 76% of 91 |
| 0x4935…dfdabalanced | $25 | +$3.2K | 97% of 33 |
| pentacap | $18 | -$188 | 88% of 208 |
| KropotkinBot | $17 | -$2.3K | 93% of 201 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?"?
278 wallets hold a position worth $466 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 278 of them. The largest Yes holder is jpurd17, with $9 on it, $1.3K lifetime profit over 9 markets (100% won). The largest No holder is Elias.Thornwell, with $90 on it, $4.5K lifetime profit over 2,940 markets (69% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $536K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
69% of the money on Yes and 68% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 19 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.