Who's betting on “Will October 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $19K traded all time
- Held now
- $7.8K by 51 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 90% 15 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 90% 36 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 97¢ and No at 3¢, a 97% implied chance of Yes. $19K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 29, 2026.
The smart money
90% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
51 wallets hold a position worth $7.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 51 of them. The largest Yes holder is Danny283847490191, with $3.8K on it, $573 lifetime profit over 107 markets (45% won). The largest No holder is Mandalorec, with $71 on it, $3.2K lifetime profit over 286 markets (63% won).
- Holders
- 15
- Money on it
- $7.6K
- Holders' win rate
- 54%
- Holders
- 36
- Money on it
- $193
- Holders' win rate
- 47%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$7.6K on it
- 1Danny28384749019145% won of 107 · noise$3.8K+$573 lifetime
- 20x34dBc406881A24B82F4b138e09169d9a004B1B63-177700480220964% won of 307 · balanced$2.9K+$3.5K lifetime
- 3IP138060% won of 273$707−$2.6K lifetime
- 4zeitfi-vault-v260% won of 926 · balanced$69+$868 lifetime
- 50x3a9d…f33284% won of 95$49−$773 lifetime
No$193 on it
- 1Mandalorec63% won of 286 · balanced$71+$3.2K lifetime
- 2maritime630740% won of 377 · noise$32+$2.6K lifetime
- 32B9S27% won of 14,477 · noise$25+$97K lifetime
- 4Perypery30% won of 473 · noise$23+$44K lifetime
- 5linzy99640% won of 35$12+$26 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big weather markets
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?$19M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$6.5M vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$834K vol.Yes 2%No 99%Smart money: No
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?$801K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$360K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$340K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$335K vol.Yes 4%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?$276K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will October 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?"?
51 wallets hold a position worth $7.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 51 of them. The largest Yes holder is Danny283847490191, with $3.8K on it, $573 lifetime profit over 107 markets (45% won). The largest No holder is Mandalorec, with $71 on it, $3.2K lifetime profit over 286 markets (63% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will October 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 97¢ and No at 3¢, a 97% implied chance of Yes. $19K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 29, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
90% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 29, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.