Who's betting on “Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?”?
Smart money leans No: 90% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 28 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $13K traded all time
- Held now
- $882 by 34 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 62% 18 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 90% 16 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 37¢ and No at 64¢, a 64% implied chance of No. $13K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2026.
The smart money
62% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 28 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 28 points. A week ago, No by 20 points.
Who holds it
34 wallets hold a position worth $882 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 34 of them. The largest Yes holder is 1walrus, with $265 on it, $38K lifetime profit over 1,303 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is conherence, with $86 on it, $3.6K lifetime profit over 415 markets (75% won).
- Holders
- 18
- Money on it
- $644
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
- Holders
- 16
- Money on it
- $238
- Holders' win rate
- 57%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$644 on it
- 11walrus60% won of 1,303 · whale$265+$38K lifetime
- 2DarkFish55% won of 646$150−$13K lifetime
- 3Retarts53% won of 118 · balanced$79+$798 lifetime
- 4Haradwaith50% won of 53,968$53−$377K lifetime
- 5nk1366% won of 185$21−$327 lifetime
No$238 on it
- 1conherence75% won of 415 · balanced$86+$3.6K lifetime
- 2LornaPredicts28% won of 15,840 · noise$65+$27K lifetime
- 3NotAnIdiot48% won of 1,435 · balanced$25+$1.5K lifetime
- 4leegunner73% won of 1,144 · whale$21+$384K lifetime
- 5asfui8j951% won of 143$13−$508 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?"?
34 wallets hold a position worth $882 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 34 of them. The largest Yes holder is 1walrus, with $265 on it, $38K lifetime profit over 1,303 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is conherence, with $86 on it, $3.6K lifetime profit over 415 markets (75% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 37¢ and No at 64¢, a 64% implied chance of No. $13K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
62% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 28 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 28 points. A week ago, No by 20 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 8, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.