Who's betting on “Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $13K traded all time
- Held now
- $3.5K by 50 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 67% 23 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 68% 27 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 60¢ and No at 41¢, a 60% implied chance of Yes. $13K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 5, 2026.
The smart money
67% of the money on Yes and 68% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split.
Who holds it
50 wallets hold a position worth $3.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 50 of them. The largest Yes holder is goingsocial, with $766 on it, $41K lifetime profit over 215 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is cosmicsteaks, with $334 on it, $8.5K lifetime profit over 4,323 markets (47% won).
- Holders
- 23
- Money on it
- $2.3K
- Holders' win rate
- 57%
- Holders
- 27
- Money on it
- $1.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 52%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$2.3K on it
- 1goingsocial50% won of 215 · whale$766+$41K lifetime
- 2Hot-SkullHomelessBegger75% won of 71 · balanced$291+$16K lifetime
- 3newdawn-267% won of 6$236−$1 lifetime
- 474-7541% won of 94$231−$2.5K lifetime
- 5GUINESS12370% won of 547$190−$59K lifetime
No$1.1K on it
- 1cosmicsteaks47% won of 4,323 · whale$334+$8.5K lifetime
- 2eqzwe103qwie64% won of 385$197−$416 lifetime
- 3oliman264% won of 1,228 · whale$149+$106K lifetime
- 4bananabreakfast48% won of 2,392 · balanced$117+$5.1K lifetime
- 5Ribot48% won of 276 · balanced$94+$528 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?"?
50 wallets hold a position worth $3.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 50 of them. The largest Yes holder is goingsocial, with $766 on it, $41K lifetime profit over 215 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is cosmicsteaks, with $334 on it, $8.5K lifetime profit over 4,323 markets (47% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 60¢ and No at 41¢, a 60% implied chance of Yes. $13K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 5, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
67% of the money on Yes and 68% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 5, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.