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Who's betting on “Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?”?

Finance$56K traded160 holdersEnds November 1, 2026Updated October 29, 2026

95%Yes

5%No

The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.

Volume: $56K
Held now: $38K
Smart share · Yes: 88%
Smart share · No: 90%

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What the money says

The odds

Polymarket prices Yes at 95¢ and No at 5¢, a 95% implied chance of Yes. $56K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.

The smart money

88% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.

Who holds it

160 wallets hold a position worth $38K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 159 of them. The largest Yes holder is SteveTheFish, with $12K on it, $27K lifetime profit over 112 markets (67% won). The largest No holder is BobInvestments, with $508 on it, $16K lifetime profit over 344 markets (69% won).

Yes95%

Smart money share88% ▼ 3 pts in 24 h

7 days ago 98%a day ago 92%now 88%

Holders: 70
Money on it: $37K
Holders' win rate: 61%

No5%

Smart money share90%

7 days ago 94%a day ago 90%now 90%

Holders: 90
Money on it: $1.1K
Holders' win rate: 52%

The biggest holders on each side

with their lifetime records

Yes$37K on it

1SteveTheFish67% won of 112 · whale$12K+$27K lifetime
2Hauchn43% won of 224 · noise$6.7K+$230K lifetime
3shovelingdigging65% won of 1,008 · whale$5.3K+$53K lifetime
4Dimpled-Foal85% won of 275 · whale$2.5K+$65K lifetime
50x0bC00DcB5e32D4B913a99C5bF274ADBb8eCd0f2a-178327422276859% won of 22 · noise$2.1K+$8.1K lifetime

No$1.1K on it

1BobInvestments69% won of 344 · whale$508+$16K lifetime
2Nadmi35% won of 1,251 · noise$332+$154K lifetime
3donthackme29% won of 86,863 · noise$35+$828K lifetime
40xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,148 · noise$31+$334K lifetime
5youtube-trader25% won of 8,026$29−$6.5K lifetime

Every holder on both sides, scored, on the live signal →

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See what the smart money does next, as it happens.

The live signalEvery holder scored, the smart-money chart since it was first tracked, and the order book.Alerts on this marketStar it and hear when it moves, or when a whale or a proven wallet goes in.Watch trades on SonarEvery Polymarket trade of $50+, live, as an ocean.AI Edge ScannerWhere Polkyo's model and the price disagree, after costs.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?"?

160 wallets hold a position worth $38K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 159 of them. The largest Yes holder is SteveTheFish, with $12K on it, $27K lifetime profit over 112 markets (67% won). The largest No holder is BobInvestments, with $508 on it, $16K lifetime profit over 344 markets (69% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 95¢ and No at 5¢, a 95% implied chance of Yes. $56K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.

Which side is the smart money on?

88% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.