Who's betting on “Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?”?
Politics · $274K volume · Ends October 26, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 31¢ and No at 70¢, a 70% implied chance of No. $274K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 26, 2026.
61% of the money on Yes and 64% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 18 points. A week ago, Yes by 17 points.
191 wallets hold a position worth $80K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 189 of them. The largest Yes holder is anoin123, with $21K on it, $4.9M lifetime loss over 1,429 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is themain, with $9.1K on it, $19K lifetime profit over 37 markets (89% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $22 on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 61% ▲ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 133
- Money on it
- $62K
- Holders' winrate
- 59%
- Snipers
- 1 · $22
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 64% ▲ 23 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 58
- Money on it
- $18K
- Holders' winrate
- 79%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| anoin123 | $21K | -$4.9M | 60% of 1,429 |
| lava-lavawhale | $13K | +$995K | 46% of 1,585 |
| flawfencewhale | $7.3K | +$477K | 75% of 478 |
| dromedaryywhale | $2.9K | +$475K | 66% of 50 |
| tunatylerwhale | $2.7K | +$253K | 56% of 1,020 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| themainbalanced | $9.1K | +$19K | 89% of 37 |
| Melody626 | $3.1K | -$34K | 76% of 207 |
| lissartter | $2.5K | -$270K | 56% of 2,742 |
| BiDiFakePollswhale | $1.4K | +$71K | 77% of 303 |
| cigarettes | $202 | -$4.2K | 46% of 42,466 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?"?
191 wallets hold a position worth $80K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 189 of them. The largest Yes holder is anoin123, with $21K on it, $4.9M lifetime loss over 1,429 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is themain, with $9.1K on it, $19K lifetime profit over 37 markets (89% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 31¢ and No at 70¢, a 70% implied chance of No. $274K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 26, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
61% of the money on Yes and 64% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 18 points. A week ago, Yes by 17 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 26, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.