Who's betting on “Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?”?
Politics · $834K volume · Ends October 28, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 32¢ and No at 69¢, a 69% implied chance of No. $834K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 28, 2026.
32% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 56 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 50 points. A week ago, No by 40 points.
594 wallets hold a position worth $404K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 568 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960, with $27K on it, $98K lifetime profit over 380 markets (64% won). The largest No holder is flawfence, with $44K on it, $480K lifetime profit over 478 markets (75% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $158 on Yes; 1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $229 on No; the insider radar has flagged 8 wallets betting $56K on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 32% ▼ 4 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 285
- Money on it
- $181K
- Holders' winrate
- 61%
- Snipers
- 1 · $158
- Insider flags
- 8 · $56K
- Smart money share
- 89% ▲ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 309
- Money on it
- $223K
- Holders' winrate
- 63%
- Snipers
- 1 · $229
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960whale | $27K | +$98K | 64% of 380 |
| 0x89AD2f89b0291415F2f67fF0E8e50eE1AF3ceaB4-1768599133899 | $24K | -$223 | 0% of 1 |
| Eliran115 | $12K | +$0 | - |
| Oriya123 | $10K | -$63 | 0% of 1 |
| FluffyMD2026 | $9.9K | +$0 | - |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| flawfencewhale | $44K | +$480K | 75% of 478 |
| pup1noise | $34K | +$325K | 41% of 1,117 |
| mr.oziwhale | $21K | +$769K | 65% of 1,069 |
| 0xheavy888whale | $14K | +$440K | 72% of 4,601 |
| nnimrodd | $9.6K | -$36K | 45% of 497 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?"?
594 wallets hold a position worth $404K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 568 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960, with $27K on it, $98K lifetime profit over 380 markets (64% won). The largest No holder is flawfence, with $44K on it, $480K lifetime profit over 478 markets (75% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 32¢ and No at 69¢, a 69% implied chance of No. $834K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 28, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
32% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 56 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 50 points. A week ago, No by 40 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 28, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
8 wallets on Yes ($56K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.