Who's betting on “Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 98% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 43 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $42K traded all time
- Held now
- $8.8K by 59 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 98% 20 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 55% 39 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 96¢ and No at 4¢, a 96% implied chance of Yes. $42K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 16, 2027.
The smart money
98% of the money on Yes and 55% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 43 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 45 points. A week ago, Yes by 38 points.
Who holds it
59 wallets hold a position worth $8.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 59 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754, with $4.4K on it, $7.5K lifetime profit over 10 markets (80% won). The largest No holder is LornaPredicts, with $50 on it, $27K lifetime profit over 15,759 markets (28% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1.1K on Yes.
- Holders
- 20
- Money on it
- $8.7K
- Holders' win rate
- 70%
- Snipers
- 1 · $1.1K
- Holders
- 39
- Money on it
- $182
- Holders' win rate
- 40%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$8.7K on it
- 10x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-179244949675480% won of 10$4.4K+$7.5K lifetime
- 2molodoyy50% won of 643 · whale$1.8K+$46K lifetime
- 3FrozenParasite71% won of 1,432 · sniper$1.1K+$244K lifetime
- 4Hot-SkullHomelessBegger75% won of 71 · balanced$582+$16K lifetime
- 5Hugin-og-Munin42% won of 15,635 · whale$308+$21K lifetime
No$182 on it
- 1LornaPredicts28% won of 15,759 · noise$50+$27K lifetime
- 2Dr.PNL30% won of 15,261$24−$485K lifetime
- 3Haradwaith50% won of 53,882$23−$377K lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,228 · noise$17+$254K lifetime
- 5planktonXD76% won of 6,321 · whale$17+$132K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in How low will Lake Powell drop?
1 moreOther big weather markets
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?$19M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$6.5M vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$834K vol.Yes 2%No 99%Smart money: No
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?$801K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$360K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?$352K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$340K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$335K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?"?
59 wallets hold a position worth $8.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 59 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754, with $4.4K on it, $7.5K lifetime profit over 10 markets (80% won). The largest No holder is LornaPredicts, with $50 on it, $27K lifetime profit over 15,759 markets (28% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 96¢ and No at 4¢, a 96% implied chance of Yes. $42K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 16, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
98% of the money on Yes and 55% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 43 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 45 points. A week ago, Yes by 38 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on April 16, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.