Who's betting on “Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 87% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 57 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $40K traded all time
- Held now
- $623 by 53 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 87% 38 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 30% 15 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $40K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 16, 2027.
The smart money
87% of the money on Yes and 30% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 57 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 56 points. A week ago, Yes by 13 points.
Who holds it
53 wallets hold a position worth $623 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 53 of them. The largest Yes holder is molodoyy, with $69 on it, $46K lifetime profit over 643 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is webot-ai, with $206 on it, $503 lifetime loss over 36 markets (56% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1 on Yes.
- Holders
- 38
- Money on it
- $208
- Holders' win rate
- 55%
- Snipers
- 1 · $1
- Holders
- 15
- Money on it
- $416
- Holders' win rate
- 55%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$208 on it
- 1molodoyy50% won of 643 · whale$69+$46K lifetime
- 2Hot-SkullHomelessBegger75% won of 71 · balanced$30+$16K lifetime
- 3X10X1041% won of 1,551 · noise$21+$38K lifetime
- 4Haradwaith50% won of 53,968$13−$377K lifetime
- 5Hugin-og-Munin42% won of 15,635 · whale$13+$21K lifetime
No$416 on it
- 1webot-ai56% won of 36$206−$503 lifetime
- 2Romiche2260% won of 581 · balanced$90+$17K lifetime
- 3SmartBoyBilly58% won of 2,620$65−$9.0K lifetime
- 4aipredarbtestbyez100% won of 1$16+$1 lifetime
- 5donthackme29% won of 86,863 · noise$14+$828K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in How low will Lake Powell drop?
1 moreOther big weather markets
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?$19M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$6.5M vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$834K vol.Yes 2%No 99%Smart money: No
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?$801K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$360K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?$352K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$340K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$335K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?"?
53 wallets hold a position worth $623 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 53 of them. The largest Yes holder is molodoyy, with $69 on it, $46K lifetime profit over 643 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is webot-ai, with $206 on it, $503 lifetime loss over 36 markets (56% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $40K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 16, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
87% of the money on Yes and 30% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 57 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 56 points. A week ago, Yes by 13 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on April 16, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.