Who's betting on “Will Ken Calvert win the CA-40 House seat?”?
Smart money leans No: 90% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 55 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $10K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.0K by 65 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 35% 37 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 90% 28 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 50¢ and No at 50¢, a 50% implied chance of Yes. $10K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
35% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 55 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 56 points.
Who holds it
65 wallets hold a position worth $4.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 65 of them. The largest Yes holder is macrosteaks, with $645 on it, $7.8K lifetime loss over 2,609 markets (64% won). The largest No holder is goingsocial, with $1.2K on it, $41K lifetime profit over 215 markets (50% won).
- Holders
- 37
- Money on it
- $2.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
- Holders
- 28
- Money on it
- $1.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 50%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$2.5K on it
- 1macrosteaks64% won of 2,609$645−$7.8K lifetime
- 274-7541% won of 94$596−$2.5K lifetime
- 3RememberAmalek73% won of 1,128 · whale$500+$819K lifetime
- 40xb8da…009253% won of 232$137−$4.6K lifetime
- 5algo16849% won of 1,623$125−$13K lifetime
No$1.4K on it
- 1goingsocial50% won of 215 · whale$1.2K+$41K lifetime
- 2cigarettes46% won of 49,094$100−$48K lifetime
- 3xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,235 · noise$21+$255K lifetime
- 4b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.98% won of 3,362 · whale$20+$22K lifetime
- 5moneymachine488% won of 293 · balanced$12+$738 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big politics markets
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- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Ken Calvert win the CA-40 House seat?"?
65 wallets hold a position worth $4.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 65 of them. The largest Yes holder is macrosteaks, with $645 on it, $7.8K lifetime loss over 2,609 markets (64% won). The largest No holder is goingsocial, with $1.2K on it, $41K lifetime profit over 215 markets (50% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Ken Calvert win the CA-40 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 50¢ and No at 50¢, a 50% implied chance of Yes. $10K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
35% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 55 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 56 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.