Who's betting on “Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?”?
Politics · $1.6M volume · Ends June 3, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 47¢ and No at 53¢, a 53% implied chance of No. $1.6M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on June 3, 2026.
77% of the money on Yes and 79% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 12 points.
1,292 wallets hold a position worth $466K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,292 of them. The largest Yes holder is lomneivan, with $68K on it, $133K lifetime profit over 59 markets (80% won). The largest No holder is ScottyNooo, with $30K on it, $891K lifetime profit over 1,533 markets (48% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $30K on Yes; 1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $118 on No.
- Smart money share
- 77%
- Holders
- 799
- Money on it
- $292K
- Holders' winrate
- 67%
- Snipers
- 1 · $30K
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 79%
- Holders
- 493
- Money on it
- $174K
- Holders' winrate
- 57%
- Snipers
- 1 · $118
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| lomneivanwhale | $68K | +$133K | 80% of 59 |
| anoin123 | $40K | -$4.9M | 60% of 1,429 |
| wan123whale | $33K | +$1.2M | 79% of 273 |
| defillama7sniper | $30K | +$448K | 88% of 51 |
| MemeKing20 | $21K | +$52K | 23% of 13 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| ScottyNooowhale | $30K | +$891K | 48% of 1,533 |
| cigarettes | $15K | -$10K | 46% of 42,259 |
| popwhale | $14K | +$27K | 69% of 293 |
| lava-lavawhale | $13K | +$995K | 46% of 1,585 |
| eightpenguinswhale | $13K | +$301K | 72% of 520 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Los Angeles Mayoral Election
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$75M vol.Yes 21%No 80%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?"?
1,292 wallets hold a position worth $466K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,292 of them. The largest Yes holder is lomneivan, with $68K on it, $133K lifetime profit over 59 markets (80% won). The largest No holder is ScottyNooo, with $30K on it, $891K lifetime profit over 1,533 markets (48% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 47¢ and No at 53¢, a 53% implied chance of No. $1.6M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on June 3, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
77% of the money on Yes and 79% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 12 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on June 3, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.