Who's betting on “Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 73% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 6 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $196K traded all time
- Held now
- $15K by 141 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 67% 62 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 73% 79 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $196K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
67% of the money on Yes and 73% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 6 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 6 points. A week ago, No by 6 points.
Who holds it
141 wallets hold a position worth $15K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 141 of them. The largest Yes holder is Xendo1, with $195 on it, $6.6K lifetime profit over 172 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is phantomscr1pt, with $2.2K on it, $12K lifetime profit over 119 markets (61% won).
Sharp money
3 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $197 on No.
- Holders
- 62
- Money on it
- $396
- Holders' win rate
- 54%
- Holders
- 79
- Money on it
- $15K
- Holders' win rate
- 74%
- Snipers
- 3 · $197
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$396 on it
- 1Xendo150% won of 172 · balanced$195+$6.6K lifetime
- 2rzgtrader62% won of 200$35−$5.2K lifetime
- 3machine32133% won of 43$28−$19K lifetime
- 4BigCaes35% won of 23$21−$1.3K lifetime
- 50x97048c1CD1Ce295f9BfdF9F222eFac2722938e26-1770913463145100% won of 35$14−$596 lifetime
No$15K on it
- 1phantomscr1pt61% won of 119 · balanced$2.2K+$12K lifetime
- 20x8931…a90c95% won of 609 · whale$2.1K+$29K lifetime
- 3tywed73% won of 209$1.8K−$6.5K lifetime
- 4RibeyeStack71% won of 42$796−$3.3K lifetime
- 50xf4d9a57c8520E47cB0FDfC623123eF6Da8b122E4-177222503879167% won of 79 · balanced$779+$1.1K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
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- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?"?
141 wallets hold a position worth $15K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 141 of them. The largest Yes holder is Xendo1, with $195 on it, $6.6K lifetime profit over 172 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is phantomscr1pt, with $2.2K on it, $12K lifetime profit over 119 markets (61% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $196K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
67% of the money on Yes and 73% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 6 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 6 points. A week ago, No by 6 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.