Who's betting on “Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?”?
Smart money leans No: 75% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 32 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $128K traded all time
- Held now
- $11K by 180 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 43% 87 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 75% 93 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 11¢ and No at 90¢, a 90% implied chance of No. $128K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
43% of the money on Yes and 75% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 32 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 31 points. A week ago, No by 32 points.
Who holds it
180 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 180 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xB886580698eDE4b18DE3E446b2D8Da8bCEdd81B3-1767532547794, with $109 on it, $35K lifetime profit over 1,033 markets (48% won). The largest No holder is MEPP, with $2.5K on it, $559K lifetime profit over 1,084 markets (62% won).
- Holders
- 87
- Money on it
- $1.2K
- Holders' win rate
- 54%
- Holders
- 93
- Money on it
- $10K
- Holders' win rate
- 65%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.2K on it
- 10xB886580698eDE4b18DE3E446b2D8Da8bCEdd81B3-176753254779448% won of 1,033 · whale$109+$35K lifetime
- 2jjams100% won of 2$87−$637 lifetime
- 3kohalacoastgabe56% won of 202$87−$12K lifetime
- 4goatboss70% won of 43 · balanced$84+$1.0K lifetime
- 50xbD450488900ed2Df9D599C3f81cf213B95030369-176756977925060% won of 15$74+$2.1K lifetime
No$10K on it
- 1MEPP62% won of 1,084 · whale$2.5K+$559K lifetime
- 2justme00376% won of 394$1.0K−$26K lifetime
- 30x43AB6682572796f6f684970eBB6Cf8C14c92A0eF-176176055626578% won of 76 · balanced$785+$2.3K lifetime
- 4katbot48% won of 200 · whale$702+$1.2K lifetime
- 5Drunken-Mentat76% won of 223 · balanced$681+$5.4K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?"?
180 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 180 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xB886580698eDE4b18DE3E446b2D8Da8bCEdd81B3-1767532547794, with $109 on it, $35K lifetime profit over 1,033 markets (48% won). The largest No holder is MEPP, with $2.5K on it, $559K lifetime profit over 1,084 markets (62% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 11¢ and No at 90¢, a 90% implied chance of No. $128K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
43% of the money on Yes and 75% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 32 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 31 points. A week ago, No by 32 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.