Who's betting on “Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 56.0 and 56.9 in October?”?
Smart money leans No: 96% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 57 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $13K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.9K by 54 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 38% 41 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 96% 13 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 12¢ and No at 89¢, an 89% implied chance of No. $13K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 2, 2026.
The smart money
38% of the money on Yes and 96% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 57 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 20 points.
Who holds it
54 wallets hold a position worth $1.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 54 of them. The largest Yes holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $64 on it, $254K lifetime profit over 123,272 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754, with $834 on it, $8.7K lifetime profit over 13 markets (85% won).
- Holders
- 41
- Money on it
- $281
- Holders' win rate
- 45%
- Holders
- 13
- Money on it
- $1.7K
- Holders' win rate
- 67%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$281 on it
- 1xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,272 · noise$64+$254K lifetime
- 2rocky4200952% won of 1,050$34−$6.9K lifetime
- 3tradetosurvive145% won of 25,346$27−$217K lifetime
- 4JsonStatham45% won of 34,979$21−$32K lifetime
- 5Dr.PNL30% won of 15,294$15−$485K lifetime
No$1.7K on it
- 10x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-179244949675485% won of 13$834+$8.7K lifetime
- 2alamedamemola42% won of 155 · noise$496+$163 lifetime
- 3AiBird57% won of 1,279 · whale$174+$122K lifetime
- 4johnashbough60% won of 858 · balanced$71+$3.9K lifetime
- 5sweeneykeith75% won of 79$18−$49 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.8M vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.8M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money split
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$973K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$324K vol.Yes 31%No 70%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 56.0 and 56.9 in October?"?
54 wallets hold a position worth $1.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 54 of them. The largest Yes holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $64 on it, $254K lifetime profit over 123,272 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754, with $834 on it, $8.7K lifetime profit over 13 markets (85% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 56.0 and 56.9 in October?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 12¢ and No at 89¢, an 89% implied chance of No. $13K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 2, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
38% of the money on Yes and 96% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 57 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 20 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 2, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.