Who's betting on “Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 87% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 25 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $64K traded all time
- Held now
- $9.5K by 128 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 63% 89 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 87% 38 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 12¢ and No at 89¢, an 89% implied chance of No. $64K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
63% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 22 points. A week ago, No by 23 points.
Who holds it
128 wallets hold a position worth $9.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 127 of them. The largest Yes holder is ImJustKen, with $396 on it, $2.3M lifetime profit over 1,080 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is simpleman, with $4.7K on it, $91K lifetime profit over 1,036 markets (53% won).
- Holders
- 90
- Money on it
- $1.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 60%
- Holders
- 38
- Money on it
- $8.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 62%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.1K on it
- 1ImJustKen65% won of 1,080 · whale$396+$2.3M lifetime
- 2EricaXBT79% won of 219 · whale$96+$1.7K lifetime
- 3YOLO-FOMO24% won of 38$77−$419 lifetime
- 4midoriyaGabeno record yet$66+$0 lifetime
- 5GUINESS12370% won of 547$62−$59K lifetime
No$8.4K on it
- 1simpleman53% won of 1,036 · whale$4.7K+$91K lifetime
- 2tedward11168% won of 200 · whale$1.1K+$7.1K lifetime
- 3HotDogs93% won of 617 · whale$945+$21K lifetime
- 40x6c10…df5c66% won of 1,065$654−$70K lifetime
- 5Elias.Thornwell69% won of 3,136 · whale$235+$560 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?"?
128 wallets hold a position worth $9.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 127 of them. The largest Yes holder is ImJustKen, with $396 on it, $2.3M lifetime profit over 1,080 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is simpleman, with $4.7K on it, $91K lifetime profit over 1,036 markets (53% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 12¢ and No at 89¢, an 89% implied chance of No. $64K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
63% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 22 points. A week ago, No by 23 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.