Who's betting on “Will Core PCE MoM be 0.4% in September?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $10K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.7K by 116 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 44% 54 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 46% 62 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 28¢ and No at 73¢, a 73% implied chance of No. $10K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 29, 2026.
The smart money
44% of the money on Yes and 46% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides.
Who holds it
116 wallets hold a position worth $1.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 116 of them. The largest Yes holder is rodrigo2p, with $302 on it, $451 lifetime loss over 6 markets (67% won). The largest No holder is PCMTest, with $249 on it, $13K lifetime profit over 500 markets (78% won).
- Holders
- 54
- Money on it
- $770
- Holders' win rate
- 60%
- Holders
- 62
- Money on it
- $959
- Holders' win rate
- 58%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$770 on it
- 1rodrigo2p67% won of 6$302−$451 lifetime
- 2sunnynotbunny60% won of 468$113−$28K lifetime
- 3xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,242 · noise$106+$255K lifetime
- 40x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-176165628427161% won of 6,267 · whale$79+$64K lifetime
- 5firegold69% won of 591 · whale$55+$16K lifetime
No$959 on it
- 1PCMTest78% won of 500 · whale$249+$13K lifetime
- 2Haradwaith50% won of 53,968$164−$377K lifetime
- 3tradetosurvive145% won of 25,331$111−$217K lifetime
- 4PPMT70% won of 56,626 · whale$94+$16K lifetime
- 5richyee18% won of 5,050$73−$19K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Core PCE MoM - September 2026
1 moreOther big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 7%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money split
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$950K vol.Yes 3%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$324K vol.Yes 31%No 70%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Core PCE MoM be 0.4% in September?"?
116 wallets hold a position worth $1.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 116 of them. The largest Yes holder is rodrigo2p, with $302 on it, $451 lifetime loss over 6 markets (67% won). The largest No holder is PCMTest, with $249 on it, $13K lifetime profit over 500 markets (78% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Core PCE MoM be 0.4% in September?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 28¢ and No at 73¢, a 73% implied chance of No. $10K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 29, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
44% of the money on Yes and 46% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 29, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.