Who's betting on “Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?”?
Smart money leans No: 71% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 38 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $93K traded all time
- Held now
- $30K by 195 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 33% 94 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 71% 100 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 10¢ and No at 90¢, a 90% implied chance of No. $93K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
The smart money
33% of the money on Yes and 71% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 38 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 38 points. A week ago, No by 38 points.
Who holds it
195 wallets hold a position worth $30K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 194 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xB80E9b3466558b0b56295C462BF875898AE1B5B9-1777271115461, with $786 on it, $0 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is justme003, with $7.1K on it, $26K lifetime loss over 394 markets (76% won).
- Holders
- 94
- Money on it
- $3.0K
- Holders' win rate
- 42%
- Holders
- 101
- Money on it
- $27K
- Holders' win rate
- 66%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$3.0K on it
- 10xB80E9b3466558b0b56295C462BF875898AE1B5B9-1777271115461no record yet$786+$0 lifetime
- 20x15D2A627b55C0742EaD6b7DEeC24FE88Ca31bC1A-1767274000139no record yet$619+$0 lifetime
- 3GarthBroadmore4% won of 204 · noise$281+$5.9K lifetime
- 4Optimus-55% won of 330 · whale$220+$121K lifetime
- 5Gl4d60% won of 1,094 · whale$171+$36K lifetime
No$27K on it
- 1justme00376% won of 394$7.1K−$26K lifetime
- 20xcf19…640254% won of 488 · whale$4.5K+$141K lifetime
- 3goingsocial50% won of 215 · whale$4.4K+$41K lifetime
- 4dsds165% won of 121 · balanced$2.6K+$687 lifetime
- 5LevantLeverage69% won of 112 · balanced$1.1K+$4.4K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?"?
195 wallets hold a position worth $30K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 194 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xB80E9b3466558b0b56295C462BF875898AE1B5B9-1777271115461, with $786 on it, $0 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is justme003, with $7.1K on it, $26K lifetime loss over 394 markets (76% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 10¢ and No at 90¢, a 90% implied chance of No. $93K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
33% of the money on Yes and 71% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 38 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 38 points. A week ago, No by 38 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.