Who's betting on “Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $215K traded all time
- Held now
- $3.5K by 110 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 67% 48 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 64% 62 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $215K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
67% of the money on Yes and 64% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
110 wallets hold a position worth $3.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 110 of them. The largest Yes holder is frogzu, with $25 on it, $741 lifetime loss over 45 markets (82% won). The largest No holder is BlindAndDeaf, with $1.4K on it, $5.5K lifetime profit over 29 markets (90% won).
- Holders
- 48
- Money on it
- $163
- Holders' win rate
- 53%
- Holders
- 62
- Money on it
- $3.3K
- Holders' win rate
- 84%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$163 on it
- 1frogzu82% won of 45$25−$741 lifetime
- 2TimeTraveler88% won of 1,372 · whale$21+$141K lifetime
- 3LornaPredicts28% won of 15,856 · noise$20+$27K lifetime
- 40xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,148 · noise$19+$334K lifetime
- 59df54% won of 201 · balanced$13+$1.9K lifetime
No$3.3K on it
- 1BlindAndDeaf90% won of 29 · balanced$1.4K+$5.5K lifetime
- 2ScientiaRex82% won of 65$370−$2.8K lifetime
- 3lonewolf601276% won of 186$217−$733 lifetime
- 4shred777788% won of 216 · balanced$173+$9.7K lifetime
- 5elmcap286% won of 1,097 · whale$170+$2.1M lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?"?
110 wallets hold a position worth $3.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 110 of them. The largest Yes holder is frogzu, with $25 on it, $741 lifetime loss over 45 markets (82% won). The largest No holder is BlindAndDeaf, with $1.4K on it, $5.5K lifetime profit over 29 markets (90% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $215K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
67% of the money on Yes and 64% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.