Who's betting on “Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $63K traded all time
- Held now
- $2.8K by 70 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 53% 31 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 57% 39 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 10¢ and No at 91¢, a 91% implied chance of No. $63K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
The smart money
53% of the money on Yes and 57% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 21 points.
Who holds it
70 wallets hold a position worth $2.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 70 of them. The largest Yes holder is Dr.PNL, with $50 on it, $485K lifetime loss over 15,294 markets (30% won). The largest No holder is FrozenParasite, with $679 on it, $244K lifetime profit over 1,432 markets (71% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $679 on No.
- Holders
- 31
- Money on it
- $268
- Holders' win rate
- 44%
- Holders
- 39
- Money on it
- $2.6K
- Holders' win rate
- 55%
- Snipers
- 1 · $679
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$268 on it
- 1Dr.PNL30% won of 15,294$50−$485K lifetime
- 2xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,272 · noise$49+$254K lifetime
- 3tradetosurvive145% won of 25,346$29−$217K lifetime
- 4hithitfar61% won of 3,626 · balanced$26+$14K lifetime
- 5LornaPredicts28% won of 15,917 · noise$24+$28K lifetime
No$2.6K on it
- 1FrozenParasite71% won of 1,432 · sniper$679+$244K lifetime
- 2sleepylemur40% won of 5$541−$177 lifetime
- 3Leclerc0450% won of 1,216 · balanced$293+$3.7K lifetime
- 4bananabreakfast48% won of 2,392 · balanced$210+$5.1K lifetime
- 5Haradwaith50% won of 54,120$136−$378K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big weather markets
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?$19M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$6.5M vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$834K vol.Yes 2%No 99%Smart money: No
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?$802K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$360K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$340K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$335K vol.Yes 4%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?$276K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?"?
70 wallets hold a position worth $2.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 70 of them. The largest Yes holder is Dr.PNL, with $50 on it, $485K lifetime loss over 15,294 markets (30% won). The largest No holder is FrozenParasite, with $679 on it, $244K lifetime profit over 1,432 markets (71% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 10¢ and No at 91¢, a 91% implied chance of No. $63K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
53% of the money on Yes and 57% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 21 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.