Who's betting on “KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?”?
Smart money leans No: 70% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 7 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $274K traded all time
- Held now
- $3.5K by 78 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 62% 23 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 70% 55 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $274K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
62% of the money on Yes and 70% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 7 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 8 points.
Who holds it
78 wallets hold a position worth $3.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 78 of them. The largest Yes holder is gambler-666, with $65 on it, $8.2K lifetime profit over 63 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is archaic, with $1.6K on it, $197K lifetime profit over 1,473 markets (86% won).
- Holders
- 23
- Money on it
- $168
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
- Holders
- 55
- Money on it
- $3.3K
- Holders' win rate
- 78%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$168 on it
- 1gambler-66660% won of 63 · balanced$65+$8.2K lifetime
- 2pipelinerat67% won of 24$34−$389 lifetime
- 3rocky4200352% won of 1,298 · whale$14+$35K lifetime
- 4LornaPredicts28% won of 15,917 · noise$10+$28K lifetime
- 5songsongnihao100% won of 689$9−$3.9K lifetime
No$3.3K on it
- 1archaic86% won of 1,473 · whale$1.6K+$197K lifetime
- 2supahao80% won of 40$575−$6.1K lifetime
- 3RememberAmalek73% won of 1,128 · whale$210+$819K lifetime
- 40xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,163 · noise$128+$335K lifetime
- 5chingata84% won of 19$102−$717 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?"?
78 wallets hold a position worth $3.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 78 of them. The largest Yes holder is gambler-666, with $65 on it, $8.2K lifetime profit over 63 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is archaic, with $1.6K on it, $197K lifetime profit over 1,473 markets (86% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $274K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
62% of the money on Yes and 70% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 7 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 8 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.