Who's betting on “Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?”?
Smart money leans No: 70% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 23 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $20K traded all time
- Held now
- $3.3K by 63 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 48% 31 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 70% 32 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $20K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
48% of the money on Yes and 70% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 23 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 22 points. A week ago, No by 23 points.
Who holds it
63 wallets hold a position worth $3.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 63 of them. The largest Yes holder is WWE009, with $78 on it, $471 lifetime loss over 201 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is mombil, with $622 on it, $502K lifetime profit over 1,063 markets (62% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $186 on No.
- Holders
- 31
- Money on it
- $229
- Holders' win rate
- 48%
- Holders
- 32
- Money on it
- $3.0K
- Holders' win rate
- 67%
- Snipers
- 1 · $186
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$229 on it
- 1WWE00940% won of 201$78−$471 lifetime
- 2Contentious-Dinnerdate67% won of 1,088 · whale$29+$104K lifetime
- 3Perypery30% won of 473 · noise$26+$44K lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,511 · noise$20+$254K lifetime
- 5Haradwaith50% won of 54,248$15−$378K lifetime
No$3.0K on it
- 1mombil62% won of 1,063 · whale$622+$502K lifetime
- 20x6c10…df5c66% won of 1,065$607−$70K lifetime
- 3M88869% won of 1,027 · whale$368+$255K lifetime
- 4vinii64% won of 1,915 · whale$309+$170K lifetime
- 5yasha62% won of 199 · balanced$242+$2.6K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big politics markets
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- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?"?
63 wallets hold a position worth $3.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 63 of them. The largest Yes holder is WWE009, with $78 on it, $471 lifetime loss over 201 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is mombil, with $622 on it, $502K lifetime profit over 1,063 markets (62% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $20K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
48% of the money on Yes and 70% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 23 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 22 points. A week ago, No by 23 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.