Who's betting on “USMCA extended in 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 99% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 85 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $12K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.8K by 46 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 14% 18 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 99% 28 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $12K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
14% of the money on Yes and 99% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 85 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 85 points. A week ago, No by 84 points.
Who holds it
46 wallets hold a position worth $4.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 46 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x5219156844fF1cE290dC7F24d687C5386b759781-1780766504920, with $232 on it, $3.7K lifetime loss over 54 markets (69% won). The largest No holder is Odysseus7, with $2.4K on it, $1.7K lifetime profit over 756 markets (69% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $76 on No.
- Holders
- 18
- Money on it
- $386
- Holders' win rate
- 67%
- Holders
- 28
- Money on it
- $4.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 58%
- Snipers
- 1 · $76
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$386 on it
- 10x5219156844fF1cE290dC7F24d687C5386b759781-178076650492069% won of 54$232−$3.7K lifetime
- 20x6c10…df5c66% won of 1,065$87−$70K lifetime
- 30x9e24bD0ebC6A423C43cf600E7bF1170A867B7e71-177563255369980% won of 1,159 · balanced$32+$1.6K lifetime
- 4LornaPredicts28% won of 15,917 · noise$8+$28K lifetime
- 5Nobleoneone83% won of 12$5+$16 lifetime
No$4.4K on it
- 1Odysseus769% won of 756 · whale$2.4K+$1.7K lifetime
- 2PROPHET.NOTES43% won of 237 · noise$678+$4.0K lifetime
- 3probability31% won of 3,349 · noise$559+$118K lifetime
- 4Chococremeux59% won of 376 · balanced$228+$2.9K lifetime
- 50xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,163 · noise$170+$335K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "USMCA extended in 2026?"?
46 wallets hold a position worth $4.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 46 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x5219156844fF1cE290dC7F24d687C5386b759781-1780766504920, with $232 on it, $3.7K lifetime loss over 54 markets (69% won). The largest No holder is Odysseus7, with $2.4K on it, $1.7K lifetime profit over 756 markets (69% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "USMCA extended in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $12K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
14% of the money on Yes and 99% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 85 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 85 points. A week ago, No by 84 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.