Who's betting on “US recession by end of 2027?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $13K traded all time
- Held now
- $6.3K by 65 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 86% 32 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 87% 33 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 35¢ and No at 65¢, a 65% implied chance of No. $13K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2027.
The smart money
86% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
65 wallets hold a position worth $6.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 65 of them. The largest Yes holder is Copezilla, with $1.1K on it, $9.3K lifetime profit over 217 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is imakebigbets, with $1.4K on it, $5.2K lifetime profit over 402 markets (78% won).
- Holders
- 32
- Money on it
- $2.2K
- Holders' win rate
- 51%
- Holders
- 33
- Money on it
- $4.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 75%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$2.2K on it
- 1Copezilla50% won of 217 · whale$1.1K+$9.3K lifetime
- 20x02187919A1bFb8E2Fe11F4a44c9db3520A2741aE-176017243076274% won of 68 · balanced$268+$703 lifetime
- 3Wojtek15% won of 229 · noise$122+$55K lifetime
- 4iraa380% won of 296 · whale$105+$7.1K lifetime
- 5tabcoin38% won of 16$99−$165 lifetime
No$4.1K on it
- 1imakebigbets78% won of 402 · whale$1.4K+$5.2K lifetime
- 2AlexiosV78% won of 464 · whale$975+$17K lifetime
- 3puravida64% won of 1,346 · whale$260+$37K lifetime
- 4TBill155% won of 519 · whale$221+$86K lifetime
- 5mazw887% won of 709$218−$2.8K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money split
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$954K vol.Yes 3%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$324K vol.Yes 31%No 70%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "US recession by end of 2027?"?
65 wallets hold a position worth $6.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 65 of them. The largest Yes holder is Copezilla, with $1.1K on it, $9.3K lifetime profit over 217 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is imakebigbets, with $1.4K on it, $5.2K lifetime profit over 402 markets (78% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "US recession by end of 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 35¢ and No at 65¢, a 65% implied chance of No. $13K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
86% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.