Who's betting on “US defaults on debt by 2027?”?
Smart money leans No: 88% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 40 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $20K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.4K by 115 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 48% 36 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 88% 79 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $20K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
48% of the money on Yes and 88% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 40 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 40 points. A week ago, No by 47 points.
Who holds it
115 wallets hold a position worth $4.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 115 of them. The largest Yes holder is MrFate, with $9 on it, $145 lifetime loss over 6 markets (33% won). The largest No holder is CB-Compound, with $991 on it, $5.8K lifetime profit over 221 markets (87% won).
- Holders
- 36
- Money on it
- $40
- Holders' win rate
- 47%
- Holders
- 79
- Money on it
- $4.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 79%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$40 on it
- 1MrFate33% won of 6$9−$145 lifetime
- 2LornaPredicts28% won of 15,856 · noise$7+$27K lifetime
- 3frogzu82% won of 45$6−$741 lifetime
- 4b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.98% won of 3,362 · whale$3+$22K lifetime
- 5playballs100% won of 3$2−$640 lifetime
No$4.4K on it
- 1CB-Compound87% won of 221 · balanced$991+$5.8K lifetime
- 2GTOrski168% won of 31 · balanced$789+$1.0K lifetime
- 3CeroXu89% won of 139 · grinder$206+$16 lifetime
- 4WallaceWW97% won of 94 · balanced$202+$727 lifetime
- 5edgeguy77% won of 57$198−$32 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "US defaults on debt by 2027?"?
115 wallets hold a position worth $4.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 115 of them. The largest Yes holder is MrFate, with $9 on it, $145 lifetime loss over 6 markets (33% won). The largest No holder is CB-Compound, with $991 on it, $5.8K lifetime profit over 221 markets (87% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "US defaults on debt by 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $20K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
48% of the money on Yes and 88% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 40 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 40 points. A week ago, No by 47 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.