Who's betting on “U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027?”?
Smart money leans No: 96% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 72 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $35K traded all time
- Held now
- $2.9K by 78 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 24% 36 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 96% 42 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 91¢, a 91% implied chance of No. $35K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
24% of the money on Yes and 96% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 72 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 72 points. A week ago, No by 72 points.
Who holds it
78 wallets hold a position worth $2.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 78 of them. The largest Yes holder is BiruRS, with $175 on it, $284 lifetime loss over 5 markets (100% won). The largest No holder is randomWalkingShrimp, with $741 on it, $39K lifetime profit over 231 markets (89% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $215 on No.
- Holders
- 36
- Money on it
- $272
- Holders' win rate
- 85%
- Holders
- 42
- Money on it
- $2.7K
- Holders' win rate
- 75%
- Snipers
- 1 · $215
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$272 on it
No$2.7K on it
- 1randomWalkingShrimp89% won of 231 · whale$741+$39K lifetime
- 2DirkDiggler6758% won of 1,069 · whale$504+$141K lifetime
- 3Krass86% won of 201 · balanced$450+$14K lifetime
- 4plankton288% won of 90 · sniper$215+$45K lifetime
- 5S88872% won of 375 · whale$133+$14K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
9 more- Pakistan$106K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- India$74K vol.Yes 12%No 89%Smart money: No
- South Korea$61K vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money: No
- Canada$24K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Argentina$23K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: No
- Indonesia$20K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: No
- Japan$18K vol.Yes 12%No 88%Smart money: No
- European Union$13K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Vietnam$11K vol.Yes 12%No 88%Smart money: Yes
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027?"?
78 wallets hold a position worth $2.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 78 of them. The largest Yes holder is BiruRS, with $175 on it, $284 lifetime loss over 5 markets (100% won). The largest No holder is randomWalkingShrimp, with $741 on it, $39K lifetime profit over 231 markets (89% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 91¢, a 91% implied chance of No. $35K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
24% of the money on Yes and 96% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 72 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 72 points. A week ago, No by 72 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.