Who's betting on “Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?”?
Smart money leans No: 94% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 27 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $29K traded all time
- Held now
- $14K by 54 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 67% 23 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 94% 31 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $29K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
67% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 27 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 15 points. A week ago, No by 15 points.
Who holds it
54 wallets hold a position worth $14K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 54 of them. The largest Yes holder is avel-mink, with $29 on it, $4.2K lifetime profit over 54 markets (6% won). The largest No holder is trampec, with $10.0K on it, $19K lifetime profit over 238 markets (82% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $398 on No.
- Holders
- 23
- Money on it
- $83
- Holders' win rate
- 34%
- Holders
- 31
- Money on it
- $14K
- Holders' win rate
- 80%
- Snipers
- 1 · $398
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$83 on it
- 1avel-mink6% won of 54 · noise$29+$4.2K lifetime
- 20x0f59…a93fno record yet$13−$22 lifetime
- 388111260% won of 1,119 · whale$10+$450K lifetime
- 4ZeaLBG46% won of 24 · noise$6+$2.2K lifetime
- 50x90142EbCe560c50174a251f7494602584131e098-1769964442711no record yet$5−$0 lifetime
No$14K on it
- 1trampec82% won of 238 · whale$10.0K+$19K lifetime
- 2Lisbon89% won of 666 · whale$1.1K+$10K lifetime
- 3bazooka151% won of 236 · balanced$687+$1.3K lifetime
- 4Outsmarter75% won of 153 · sniper$398+$75K lifetime
- 5radek4469% won of 260$324−$2.1K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?"?
54 wallets hold a position worth $14K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 54 of them. The largest Yes holder is avel-mink, with $29 on it, $4.2K lifetime profit over 54 markets (6% won). The largest No holder is trampec, with $10.0K on it, $19K lifetime profit over 238 markets (82% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $29K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
67% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 27 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 15 points. A week ago, No by 15 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.