Who's betting on “Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 90% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 17 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $129K traded all time
- Held now
- $25K by 234 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 90% 93 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 73% 141 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $129K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
90% of the money on Yes and 73% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 17 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 17 points. A week ago, Yes by 22 points.
Who holds it
234 wallets hold a position worth $25K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 234 of them. The largest Yes holder is Jerzy, with $270 on it, $52K lifetime profit over 283 markets (77% won). The largest No holder is KrackenSruster, with $11K on it, $274K lifetime profit over 907 markets (66% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1.5K on No.
- Holders
- 93
- Money on it
- $770
- Holders' win rate
- 66%
- Holders
- 141
- Money on it
- $24K
- Holders' win rate
- 74%
- Snipers
- 1 · $1.5K
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$770 on it
- 1Jerzy77% won of 283 · whale$270+$52K lifetime
- 2AlexPro76% won of 200 · whale$174+$101K lifetime
- 3ScottyNooo48% won of 1,596 · whale$162+$904K lifetime
- 4alpaca58% won of 185$31−$4.9K lifetime
- 5ChasingPaper60% won of 203 · balanced$12+$14K lifetime
No$24K on it
- 1KrackenSruster66% won of 907 · whale$11K+$274K lifetime
- 2cezarn13288% won of 200$2.2K−$16K lifetime
- 3nkolbet5199% won of 168$2.0K−$16K lifetime
- 4Outsmarter75% won of 153 · sniper$1.5K+$75K lifetime
- 5bifurcatio77% won of 117 · balanced$1.5K+$3.5K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces by December 31, 2026?"?
234 wallets hold a position worth $25K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 234 of them. The largest Yes holder is Jerzy, with $270 on it, $52K lifetime profit over 283 markets (77% won). The largest No holder is KrackenSruster, with $11K on it, $274K lifetime profit over 907 markets (66% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $129K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
90% of the money on Yes and 73% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 17 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 17 points. A week ago, Yes by 22 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.