Who's betting on “UK Recession in 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 59% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 43 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $16K traded all time
- Held now
- $2.1K by 71 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 15% 41 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 59% 30 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $16K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on May 1, 2027.
The smart money
15% of the money on Yes and 59% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 43 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 43 points. A week ago, No by 43 points.
Who holds it
71 wallets hold a position worth $2.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 71 of them. The largest Yes holder is Dr.PNL, with $25 on it, $485K lifetime loss over 15,261 markets (30% won). The largest No holder is firegold, with $318 on it, $16K lifetime profit over 591 markets (69% won).
- Holders
- 41
- Money on it
- $103
- Holders' win rate
- 41%
- Holders
- 30
- Money on it
- $2.0K
- Holders' win rate
- 71%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$103 on it
- 1Dr.PNL30% won of 15,261$25−$485K lifetime
- 20xB1973A4c1edA59307dBC495a4BC384f77cDe6968-1780833529951no record yet$21−$205 lifetime
- 3Numitus199449% won of 15,720$13−$28K lifetime
- 40xee47…e203no record yet$11+$0 lifetime
- 50x8aACDd214a998F8706B6a32f0340cd3b8b459b5E-177569044720936% won of 25$7−$301 lifetime
No$2.0K on it
- 1firegold69% won of 591 · whale$318+$16K lifetime
- 2KrdRL84% won of 110 · balanced$308+$1.2K lifetime
- 3Jean-Claude32286% won of 227$299−$937 lifetime
- 4Eastassignment58% won of 57$285−$440 lifetime
- 5vinii64% won of 1,915 · whale$159+$170K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 7%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money split
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 20%No 80%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$952K vol.Yes 3%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$324K vol.Yes 31%No 70%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "UK Recession in 2026?"?
71 wallets hold a position worth $2.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 71 of them. The largest Yes holder is Dr.PNL, with $25 on it, $485K lifetime loss over 15,261 markets (30% won). The largest No holder is firegold, with $318 on it, $16K lifetime profit over 591 markets (69% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "UK Recession in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $16K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on May 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
15% of the money on Yes and 59% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 43 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 43 points. A week ago, No by 43 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on May 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.