Who's betting on “Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?”?
Smart money leans No: 47% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 25 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $228K traded all time
- Held now
- $46K by 538 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 22% 311 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 47% 225 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 26¢ and No at 75¢, a 75% implied chance of No. $228K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
22% of the money on Yes and 47% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 29 points. A week ago, No by 23 points.
Who holds it
538 wallets hold a position worth $46K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 536 of them. The largest Yes holder is Kroll703, with $2.3K on it, $239K lifetime loss over 200 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is dwFqcd4Z, with $9.2K on it, $1.6M lifetime loss over 70 markets (89% won).
- Holders
- 313
- Money on it
- $12K
- Holders' win rate
- 47%
- Holders
- 225
- Money on it
- $34K
- Holders' win rate
- 76%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$12K on it
- 1Kroll70350% won of 200$2.3K−$239K lifetime
- 2HoneybeeAlliance0% won of 11$1.4K−$56K lifetime
- 3Cainezno record yet$1.3K+$0 lifetime
- 4herewe76% won of 68 · balanced$1.0K+$1.0K lifetime
- 5RobClive41% won of 41$455−$4.8K lifetime
No$34K on it
- 1dwFqcd4Z89% won of 70$9.2K−$1.6M lifetime
- 2Canaldi100% won of 26 · balanced$3.8K+$18K lifetime
- 3vinii64% won of 1,915 · whale$2.5K+$170K lifetime
- 40x6c10…df5c66% won of 1,065$1.8K−$70K lifetime
- 5Tonymountaina52% won of 253$1.2K−$5.9K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big politics markets
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- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?"?
538 wallets hold a position worth $46K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 536 of them. The largest Yes holder is Kroll703, with $2.3K on it, $239K lifetime loss over 200 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is dwFqcd4Z, with $9.2K on it, $1.6M lifetime loss over 70 markets (89% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 26¢ and No at 75¢, a 75% implied chance of No. $228K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
22% of the money on Yes and 47% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 29 points. A week ago, No by 23 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.