Who's betting on “Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 82% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 21 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $15K traded all time
- Held now
- $513 by 64 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 82% 40 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 61% 23 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 10¢ and No at 91¢, a 91% implied chance of No. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
82% of the money on Yes and 61% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 21 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 21 points. A week ago, Yes by 23 points.
Who holds it
64 wallets hold a position worth $513 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 63 of them. The largest Yes holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $8 on it, $257K lifetime profit over 124,069 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is Mst-br, with $104 on it, $123 lifetime profit over 273 markets (85% won).
- Holders
- 41
- Money on it
- $49
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
- Holders
- 23
- Money on it
- $464
- Holders' win rate
- 76%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$49 on it
- 1xtxpleasecallme40% won of 124,069 · noise$8+$257K lifetime
- 2Robbb80% won of 491 · whale$8+$95K lifetime
- 30x45e6Df48cCF5d1773D509C97052F819690cEC078-178211120799855% won of 2,232 · balanced$5+$2.1K lifetime
- 4Lavincey48% won of 4,972 · whale$3+$62K lifetime
- 5V4grant37% won of 788$2−$493 lifetime
No$464 on it
- 1Mst-br85% won of 273 · balanced$104+$123 lifetime
- 2bakayo33 - 993474% won of 407 · balanced$94+$5.5K lifetime
- 3Idapro55585% won of 213$57−$779 lifetime
- 4Intrahybridbeing61% won of 71 · balanced$41+$405 lifetime
- 5roman-1643% won of 14$33−$153 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026?"?
64 wallets hold a position worth $513 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 63 of them. The largest Yes holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $8 on it, $257K lifetime profit over 124,069 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is Mst-br, with $104 on it, $123 lifetime profit over 273 markets (85% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 10¢ and No at 91¢, a 91% implied chance of No. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
82% of the money on Yes and 61% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 21 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 21 points. A week ago, Yes by 23 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.