Who's betting on “Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?”?
Smart money leans No: 92% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 23 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $41K traded all time
- Held now
- $15K by 94 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 69% 45 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 92% 49 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 27¢ and No at 73¢, a 73% implied chance of No. $41K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 1, 2026.
The smart money
69% of the money on Yes and 92% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 23 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 22 points. A week ago, No by 17 points.
Who holds it
94 wallets hold a position worth $15K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 94 of them. The largest Yes holder is DirkDiggler67, with $1.3K on it, $141K lifetime profit over 1,069 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is h4xor, with $2.0K on it, $7.8K lifetime profit over 215 markets (67% won).
- Holders
- 45
- Money on it
- $3.9K
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
- Holders
- 49
- Money on it
- $11K
- Holders' win rate
- 69%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$3.9K on it
- 1DirkDiggler6758% won of 1,069 · whale$1.3K+$141K lifetime
- 2TheWindKnowsmyName68% won of 490$584−$52K lifetime
- 3paddaa58% won of 1,507 · whale$535+$288K lifetime
- 4Car58% won of 1,784 · whale$270+$1.5M lifetime
- 5jan-delarus18% won of 217$266−$848 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?"?
94 wallets hold a position worth $15K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 94 of them. The largest Yes holder is DirkDiggler67, with $1.3K on it, $141K lifetime profit over 1,069 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is h4xor, with $2.0K on it, $7.8K lifetime profit over 215 markets (67% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 27¢ and No at 73¢, a 73% implied chance of No. $41K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
69% of the money on Yes and 92% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 23 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 22 points. A week ago, No by 17 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.