Who's betting on “Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?”?
Smart money leans No: 98% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 36 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $70K traded all time
- Held now
- $40K by 105 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 62% 41 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 98% 64 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $70K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
The smart money
62% of the money on Yes and 98% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 36 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 40 points. A week ago, No by 23 points.
Who holds it
105 wallets hold a position worth $40K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 105 of them. The largest Yes holder is jan-delarus, with $22 on it, $848 lifetime loss over 217 markets (18% won). The largest No holder is 0xef97…ab2c, with $15K on it, $1.4K lifetime profit over 37 markets (97% won).
- Holders
- 41
- Money on it
- $120
- Holders' win rate
- 41%
- Holders
- 64
- Money on it
- $40K
- Holders' win rate
- 90%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$120 on it
- 1jan-delarus18% won of 217$22−$848 lifetime
- 2trashtier34% won of 2,147 · noise$15+$28K lifetime
- 3Numitus199449% won of 15,720$14−$28K lifetime
- 4grinder101147% won of 519 · whale$13+$11K lifetime
- 5pullthetrigger41% won of 367 · noise$9+$3.1K lifetime
No$40K on it
- 10xef97…ab2c97% won of 37 · grinder$15K+$1.4K lifetime
- 2thoodr96% won of 830 · whale$7.5K+$100K lifetime
- 3MrNoItAll90% won of 514 · whale$6.8K+$38K lifetime
- 4QMG-CORE73% won of 1,224 · whale$2.7K+$57K lifetime
- 5Jjw72% won of 247 · whale$2.5K+$11K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?"?
105 wallets hold a position worth $40K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 105 of them. The largest Yes holder is jan-delarus, with $22 on it, $848 lifetime loss over 217 markets (18% won). The largest No holder is 0xef97…ab2c, with $15K on it, $1.4K lifetime profit over 37 markets (97% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $70K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
62% of the money on Yes and 98% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 36 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 40 points. A week ago, No by 23 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.