Who's betting on “Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 60% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 23 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $48K traded all time
- Held now
- $3.2K by 87 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 36% 52 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 60% 35 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $48K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
36% of the money on Yes and 60% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 23 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 23 points. A week ago, No by 20 points.
Who holds it
87 wallets hold a position worth $3.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 87 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xbC3f91731a696E1A5E051496018EEB8782243e71-1770292441437, with $33 on it, $310 lifetime loss over 7 markets (43% won). The largest No holder is FrozenParasite, with $1.0K on it, $244K lifetime profit over 1,432 markets (71% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1.0K on No.
- Holders
- 52
- Money on it
- $125
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
- Holders
- 35
- Money on it
- $3.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 60%
- Snipers
- 1 · $1.0K
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$125 on it
- 10xbC3f91731a696E1A5E051496018EEB8782243e71-177029244143743% won of 7$33−$310 lifetime
- 2plataoplomo-67087% won of 15$22+$272 lifetime
- 30x8357321c607743b605da9ea26b601c76C786B6A6-176081466128773% won of 236$8−$252 lifetime
- 4vinii64% won of 1,915 · whale$7+$170K lifetime
- 5Jredhead0% won of 1$7−$74 lifetime
No$3.1K on it
- 1FrozenParasite71% won of 1,432 · sniper$1.0K+$244K lifetime
- 2chinchonfan0% won of 1$671−$2.1K lifetime
- 30xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,148 · noise$460+$334K lifetime
- 4LuxTenebris61% won of 59$188−$7.1K lifetime
- 5GenaTheBondKilIer46% won of 468 · whale$154+$41K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?"?
87 wallets hold a position worth $3.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 87 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xbC3f91731a696E1A5E051496018EEB8782243e71-1770292441437, with $33 on it, $310 lifetime loss over 7 markets (43% won). The largest No holder is FrozenParasite, with $1.0K on it, $244K lifetime profit over 1,432 markets (71% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $48K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
36% of the money on Yes and 60% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 23 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 23 points. A week ago, No by 20 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.