Who's betting on “Obama arrested before 2027?”?
Smart money leans No: 49% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 27 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $25K traded all time
- Held now
- $6.2K by 95 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 22% 43 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 49% 52 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $25K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
22% of the money on Yes and 49% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 27 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 27 points. A week ago, No by 26 points.
Who holds it
95 wallets hold a position worth $6.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 95 of them. The largest Yes holder is Dear-Polyp, with $40 on it, $4.1K lifetime loss over 213 markets (8% won). The largest No holder is Alegrandebig, with $2.3K on it, $12K lifetime loss over 1,242 markets (92% won).
- Holders
- 43
- Money on it
- $137
- Holders' win rate
- 35%
- Holders
- 52
- Money on it
- $6.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 81%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$137 on it
- 1Dear-Polyp8% won of 213$40−$4.1K lifetime
- 2Tommybet71100% won of 4$19−$2.5K lifetime
- 3Nynex42053% won of 59$10−$12 lifetime
- 4TruePoliticsMan33% won of 6$9−$318 lifetime
- 5planktonXD76% won of 6,321 · whale$9+$132K lifetime
No$6.1K on it
- 1Alegrandebig92% won of 1,242$2.3K−$12K lifetime
- 2GTOrski168% won of 31 · balanced$1.5K+$1.0K lifetime
- 3Idontknow80% won of 20$425−$695 lifetime
- 4bZk0Uo70% won of 900 · whale$311+$132 lifetime
- 50x8931…a90c95% won of 609 · whale$273+$29K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Obama arrested before 2027?"?
95 wallets hold a position worth $6.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 95 of them. The largest Yes holder is Dear-Polyp, with $40 on it, $4.1K lifetime loss over 213 markets (8% won). The largest No holder is Alegrandebig, with $2.3K on it, $12K lifetime loss over 1,242 markets (92% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Obama arrested before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $25K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
22% of the money on Yes and 49% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 27 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 27 points. A week ago, No by 26 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.