Who's betting on “Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 87% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 28 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $290K traded all time
- Held now
- $31K by 144 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 59% 76 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 87% 68 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 94¢, a 94% implied chance of No. $290K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
59% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 28 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 28 points. A week ago, No by 28 points.
Who holds it
144 wallets hold a position worth $31K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 144 of them. The largest Yes holder is SnapElectionAvoider, with $491 on it, $203K lifetime profit over 2,242 markets (48% won). The largest No holder is conotocaurius, with $3.9K on it, $20K lifetime profit over 208 markets (67% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $627 on No.
- Holders
- 76
- Money on it
- $2.0K
- Holders' win rate
- 58%
- Holders
- 68
- Money on it
- $29K
- Holders' win rate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 1 · $627
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$2.0K on it
- 1SnapElectionAvoider48% won of 2,242 · whale$491+$203K lifetime
- 2Bingobingobingo44% won of 86$345−$42K lifetime
- 3rwcoffee80% won of 256$314−$25K lifetime
- 4MrMarket70% won of 513 · whale$114+$18K lifetime
- 5troim66% won of 819 · whale$91+$90K lifetime
No$29K on it
- 1conotocaurius67% won of 208 · whale$3.9K+$20K lifetime
- 2nelbal848682% won of 105 · whale$3.0K+$23K lifetime
- 3CommanderData53% won of 55$2.3K−$8.0K lifetime
- 4QuarterlyComeback65% won of 470 · balanced$2.2K+$9.9K lifetime
- 5475134672% won of 1,128 · whale$2.2K+$169K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?"?
144 wallets hold a position worth $31K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 144 of them. The largest Yes holder is SnapElectionAvoider, with $491 on it, $203K lifetime profit over 2,242 markets (48% won). The largest No holder is conotocaurius, with $3.9K on it, $20K lifetime profit over 208 markets (67% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 94¢, a 94% implied chance of No. $290K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
59% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 28 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 28 points. A week ago, No by 28 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.