Who's betting on “Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 97% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 15 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $18K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.4K by 53 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 82% 34 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 97% 19 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 10¢ and No at 91¢, a 91% implied chance of No. $18K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
82% of the money on Yes and 97% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 15 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 28 points. A week ago, Yes by 54 points.
Who holds it
53 wallets hold a position worth $4.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 53 of them. The largest Yes holder is ClearMove, with $206 on it, $29K lifetime profit over 205 markets (37% won). The largest No holder is nope3050, with $3.7K on it, $4.0K lifetime profit over 169 markets (61% won).
- Holders
- 34
- Money on it
- $415
- Holders' win rate
- 40%
- Holders
- 19
- Money on it
- $4.0K
- Holders' win rate
- 62%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$415 on it
- 1ClearMove37% won of 205 · noise$206+$29K lifetime
- 2Mikelious47% won of 62$41−$88 lifetime
- 3Avitz3331% won of 269 · noise$37+$11K lifetime
- 40x52eb…ec36no record yet$33+$35 lifetime
- 5ChainReaction-39250% won of 176 · balanced$21+$11K lifetime
No$4.0K on it
- 1nope305061% won of 169 · balanced$3.7K+$4.0K lifetime
- 2Jean-Claude32286% won of 227$96−$937 lifetime
- 3ofcourseistillloveyou2019100% won of 331 · grinder$91+$181 lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,272 · noise$18+$254K lifetime
- 50xB763ea830995b7C0dC76bBA32E5a0398856f0691-176165352037869% won of 26$18−$21 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026?"?
53 wallets hold a position worth $4.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 53 of them. The largest Yes holder is ClearMove, with $206 on it, $29K lifetime profit over 205 markets (37% won). The largest No holder is nope3050, with $3.7K on it, $4.0K lifetime profit over 169 markets (61% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 10¢ and No at 91¢, a 91% implied chance of No. $18K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
82% of the money on Yes and 97% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 15 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 28 points. A week ago, Yes by 54 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.