Who's betting on “Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 89% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 22 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $15K traded all time
- Held now
- $5.4K by 75 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 66% 32 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 89% 43 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
66% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 22 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 22 points.
Who holds it
75 wallets hold a position worth $5.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 75 of them. The largest Yes holder is Perypery, with $8 on it, $44K lifetime profit over 473 markets (30% won). The largest No holder is wubddh, with $3.5K on it, $2.6K lifetime profit over 1,034 markets (91% won).
- Holders
- 32
- Money on it
- $16
- Holders' win rate
- 39%
- Holders
- 43
- Money on it
- $5.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 84%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$16 on it
- 1Perypery30% won of 473 · noise$8+$44K lifetime
- 2youtube-trader25% won of 8,026$3−$6.5K lifetime
- 3xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,272 · noise$1+$254K lifetime
- 4Biffski66% won of 201$1−$2.9K lifetime
- 5turpae78% won of 335 · balanced$1+$786 lifetime
No$5.4K on it
- 1wubddh91% won of 1,034 · whale$3.5K+$2.6K lifetime
- 2cigarettes46% won of 49,301$314−$52K lifetime
- 3Quantum77785% won of 155 · balanced$310+$1.4K lifetime
- 4Sisquo100% won of 6$290+$230 lifetime
- 5Giorgio266% won of 302 · whale$249+$33K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money split
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$959K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$324K vol.Yes 31%No 70%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?"?
75 wallets hold a position worth $5.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 75 of them. The largest Yes holder is Perypery, with $8 on it, $44K lifetime profit over 473 markets (30% won). The largest No holder is wubddh, with $3.5K on it, $2.6K lifetime profit over 1,034 markets (91% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
66% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 22 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 22 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.