Who's betting on “Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $108K traded all time
- Held now
- $6.9K by 149 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 48% 66 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 47% 81 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $108K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
48% of the money on Yes and 47% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 9 points.
Who holds it
149 wallets hold a position worth $6.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 147 of them. The largest Yes holder is Nadmi, with $50 on it, $154K lifetime profit over 1,251 markets (35% won). The largest No holder is 0xrc, with $1.3K on it, $29K lifetime profit over 351 markets (85% won).
- Holders
- 66
- Money on it
- $409
- Holders' win rate
- 52%
- Holders
- 83
- Money on it
- $6.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 75%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$409 on it
- 1Nadmi35% won of 1,251 · noise$50+$154K lifetime
- 2Caelum-Galyon74% won of 42$47−$553 lifetime
- 3rocky4202452% won of 900 · whale$28+$24K lifetime
- 4KLccKris75% won of 32$26−$12K lifetime
- 5BrukyChen0% won of 2$24−$54 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?"?
149 wallets hold a position worth $6.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 147 of them. The largest Yes holder is Nadmi, with $50 on it, $154K lifetime profit over 1,251 markets (35% won). The largest No holder is 0xrc, with $1.3K on it, $29K lifetime profit over 351 markets (85% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $108K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
48% of the money on Yes and 47% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 9 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.