Who's betting on “Jimmy Lai released by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 68% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 9 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $28K traded all time
- Held now
- $16K by 66 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 58% 29 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 68% 37 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 94¢, a 94% implied chance of No. $28K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
58% of the money on Yes and 68% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 9 points. A week ago, No by 11 points.
Who holds it
66 wallets hold a position worth $16K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 66 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x6bd2671189761274417e66D1F6a834ecdBb695f6-1761995156221, with $304 on it, $3.3K lifetime profit over 385 markets (93% won). The largest No holder is Avamax, with $5.7K on it, $17K lifetime profit over 770 markets (74% won).
- Holders
- 29
- Money on it
- $894
- Holders' win rate
- 63%
- Holders
- 37
- Money on it
- $15K
- Holders' win rate
- 64%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$894 on it
- 10x6bd2671189761274417e66D1F6a834ecdBb695f6-176199515622193% won of 385 · balanced$304+$3.3K lifetime
- 2Dario2639% won of 201$257−$3.8K lifetime
- 30xf5a6…358233% won of 3$99+$19 lifetime
- 4smellyEllie50% won of 1,984 · whale$91+$106K lifetime
- 50xA9Dc3b13E78b67B7C7666B09ad8D12112eBC01C9-176101752405854% won of 59$85−$347 lifetime
No$15K on it
- 1Avamax74% won of 770 · whale$5.7K+$17K lifetime
- 2HughJackman49% won of 200$3.0K−$4.9K lifetime
- 3Momomo11159% won of 71 · balanced$2.0K+$1.0K lifetime
- 40x2c97…5de235% won of 40$1.5K−$1.4K lifetime
- 5NotMasterFan84% won of 578 · whale$973+$11K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Jimmy Lai released by December 31, 2026?"?
66 wallets hold a position worth $16K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 66 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x6bd2671189761274417e66D1F6a834ecdBb695f6-1761995156221, with $304 on it, $3.3K lifetime profit over 385 markets (93% won). The largest No holder is Avamax, with $5.7K on it, $17K lifetime profit over 770 markets (74% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Jimmy Lai released by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 94¢, a 94% implied chance of No. $28K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
58% of the money on Yes and 68% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 9 points. A week ago, No by 11 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.