Who's betting on “Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?”?
Smart money leans No: 84% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 13 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $18K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.1K by 86 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 72% 43 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 84% 42 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 17¢ and No at 84¢, an 84% implied chance of No. $18K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 1, 2027.
The smart money
72% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 13 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 14 points. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
86 wallets hold a position worth $4.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 85 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x56B10BF111398693Aee936e7EeA6F09aE52E6146-1777005317892, with $150 on it, $554 lifetime profit over 106 markets (94% won). The largest No holder is Cheesik, with $1.1K on it, $1.0K lifetime profit over 11 markets (36% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $3 on Yes; 1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $276 on No.
- Holders
- 44
- Money on it
- $673
- Holders' win rate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 1 · $3
- Holders
- 42
- Money on it
- $3.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
- Snipers
- 1 · $276
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$673 on it
- 10x56B10BF111398693Aee936e7EeA6F09aE52E6146-177700531789294% won of 106 · balanced$150+$554 lifetime
- 22B9S27% won of 14,477 · noise$123+$97K lifetime
- 3xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,253 · noise$78+$255K lifetime
- 4unwelcomeguy67% won of 3$73−$1.1K lifetime
- 5RayBrazil100% won of 10$64+$844 lifetime
No$3.4K on it
- 1Cheesik36% won of 11$1.1K+$1.0K lifetime
- 2zctrading83% won of 36 · balanced$732+$1.9K lifetime
- 3TheOne77793% won of 381 · sniper$276+$16K lifetime
- 4crypto-basenji47% won of 409 · whale$260+$3.6K lifetime
- 5Eire68% won of 446$246−$116K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
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- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?"?
86 wallets hold a position worth $4.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 85 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x56B10BF111398693Aee936e7EeA6F09aE52E6146-1777005317892, with $150 on it, $554 lifetime profit over 106 markets (94% won). The largest No holder is Cheesik, with $1.1K on it, $1.0K lifetime profit over 11 markets (36% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 17¢ and No at 84¢, an 84% implied chance of No. $18K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
72% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 13 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 14 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on April 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.