Who's betting on “Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?”?
Politics · $176K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 36¢ and No at 64¢, a 64% implied chance of No. $176K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
24% of the money on Yes and 29% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 6 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 19 points. A week ago, No by 26 points.
127 wallets hold a position worth $34K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 127 of them. The largest Yes holder is Topgold1, with $5.6K on it, $13K lifetime loss over 161 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is LJa7io23MCv954j, with $9.0K on it, $379 lifetime loss over 131 markets (88% won).
- Smart money share
- 24% ▼ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 69
- Money on it
- $12K
- Holders' winrate
- 40%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 29% ▼ 15 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 58
- Money on it
- $21K
- Holders' winrate
- 75%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Topgold1 | $5.6K | -$13K | 40% of 161 |
| 52centis | $2.5K | -$45K | 37% of 191 |
| 0x9DDD9e66Fd4Bf841CB5F943Bbc6C0D708F4d5Ca4-1772186433310noise | $720 | +$2.3K | 21% of 102 |
| AXIOSinsidernoise | $510 | +$438 | 31% of 29 |
| 0x8B5A2A371DE832fC1750c1E1E97Fa5496C30B95D-1761755360740 | $469 | -$6.0K | 62% of 227 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| LJa7io23MCv954j | $9.0K | -$379 | 88% of 131 |
| deltasniper | $2.6K | -$48K | 56% of 241 |
| 65765757whale | $1.4K | +$256K | 82% of 390 |
| RdogTest | $1.2K | +$1.3K | 92% of 13 |
| Haradwaith | $1.2K | -$334K | 50% of 45,650 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)
- October 31$335K vol.Yes 11%No 89%Smart money: Yes
- September 30$43K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Who's betting on Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures) →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?"?
127 wallets hold a position worth $34K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 127 of them. The largest Yes holder is Topgold1, with $5.6K on it, $13K lifetime loss over 161 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is LJa7io23MCv954j, with $9.0K on it, $379 lifetime loss over 131 markets (88% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 36¢ and No at 64¢, a 64% implied chance of No. $176K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
24% of the money on Yes and 29% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 6 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 19 points. A week ago, No by 26 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.