Who's betting on “Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?”?
Smart money leans No: 94% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 13 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $77K traded all time
- Held now
- $20K by 120 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 80% 67 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 94% 53 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $77K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
80% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 13 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 14 points. A week ago, Yes by 66 points.
Who holds it
120 wallets hold a position worth $20K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 120 of them. The largest Yes holder is wienerdog, with $481 on it, $21K lifetime profit over 332 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is LJa7io23MCv954j, with $14K on it, $2.6K lifetime profit over 134 markets (87% won).
- Holders
- 67
- Money on it
- $1.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
- Holders
- 53
- Money on it
- $19K
- Holders' win rate
- 85%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.4K on it
- 1wienerdog56% won of 332 · whale$481+$21K lifetime
- 2denizz66% won of 1,007 · whale$275+$2.3M lifetime
- 3paddaa58% won of 1,507 · whale$99+$288K lifetime
- 40x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-179243706475847% won of 827$94−$8.4K lifetime
- 5HerrieDavis63% won of 2,687 · whale$61+$325K lifetime
No$19K on it
- 1LJa7io23MCv954j87% won of 134 · whale$14K+$2.6K lifetime
- 20x0DccfaE62418c61D2F9A642e88Df39702D8Bd87c-176493290440382% won of 186 · whale$971+$19K lifetime
- 3M2sx92kljs4278% won of 517 · whale$588+$61K lifetime
- 4AlAhmeda71% won of 1,367$450−$96K lifetime
- 5user20188% won of 33 · balanced$383+$636 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?"?
120 wallets hold a position worth $20K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 120 of them. The largest Yes holder is wienerdog, with $481 on it, $21K lifetime profit over 332 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is LJa7io23MCv954j, with $14K on it, $2.6K lifetime profit over 134 markets (87% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $77K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
80% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 13 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 14 points. A week ago, Yes by 66 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.