Who's betting on “Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?”?
Smart money leans No: 90% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 9 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $249K traded all time
- Held now
- $54K by 400 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 81% 227 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 90% 173 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $249K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
81% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 8 points. A week ago, No by 9 points.
Who holds it
400 wallets hold a position worth $54K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 400 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x0b30d7a048a270c8d7311f2e45344F105c9354f9-1767401919066, with $452 on it, $15K lifetime profit over 6 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is denizz, with $15K on it, $2.3M lifetime profit over 1,007 markets (66% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1 on Yes; 1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $696 on No.
- Holders
- 227
- Money on it
- $3.8K
- Holders' win rate
- 51%
- Snipers
- 1 · $1
- Holders
- 173
- Money on it
- $50K
- Holders' win rate
- 67%
- Snipers
- 1 · $696
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$3.8K on it
- 10x0b30d7a048a270c8d7311f2e45344F105c9354f9-176740191906650% won of 6$452+$15K lifetime
- 2UpTight49% won of 204 · whale$445+$1.6K lifetime
- 3aenews273% won of 1,134 · whale$414+$2.4M lifetime
- 4hooterz26% won of 31 · noise$299+$24K lifetime
- 5Po1yBot-H4KRu0bwR7100% won of 1$278+$1.6K lifetime
No$50K on it
- 1denizz66% won of 1,007 · whale$15K+$2.3M lifetime
- 2eightpenguins72% won of 538 · whale$6.4K+$316K lifetime
- 3MEPP62% won of 1,084 · whale$6.0K+$559K lifetime
- 40xcf19…640254% won of 488 · whale$4.7K+$141K lifetime
- 5pakukudolphi45% won of 326 · noise$2.6K+$136K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?"?
400 wallets hold a position worth $54K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 400 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x0b30d7a048a270c8d7311f2e45344F105c9354f9-1767401919066, with $452 on it, $15K lifetime profit over 6 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is denizz, with $15K on it, $2.3M lifetime profit over 1,007 markets (66% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $249K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
81% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 8 points. A week ago, No by 9 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.