Who's betting on “Iran nuclear test before 2027?”?
Smart money leans No: 89% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 60 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $281K traded all time
- Held now
- $51K by 356 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 28% 156 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 89% 199 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $281K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
28% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 60 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 60 points. A week ago, No by 61 points.
Who holds it
356 wallets hold a position worth $51K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 355 of them. The largest Yes holder is Discombobulator7, with $410 on it, $3.9K lifetime loss over 2 markets (0% won). The largest No holder is Talophex, with $9.7K on it, $43K lifetime profit over 1,060 markets (94% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $48 on No.
- Holders
- 157
- Money on it
- $2.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 58%
- Holders
- 199
- Money on it
- $49K
- Holders' win rate
- 85%
- Snipers
- 1 · $48
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$2.1K on it
- 1Discombobulator70% won of 2$410−$3.9K lifetime
- 2jesus91153% won of 122$328−$9.2K lifetime
- 3FatCat05100% won of 1$177−$734 lifetime
- 40x0DC5A561aF3E3d14BEc8b8fc7ef2C0776252A303-176793381065427% won of 201$143−$14K lifetime
- 5RememberAmalek73% won of 1,128 · whale$131+$819K lifetime
No$49K on it
- 1Talophex94% won of 1,060 · whale$9.7K+$43K lifetime
- 2Stableincome94% won of 63 · grinder$5.6K+$1.7K lifetime
- 3forinnerpsandr1x1122283% won of 299 · whale$3.4K+$89K lifetime
- 4bigshort84% won of 222 · whale$3.1K+$18K lifetime
- 5MrNoItAll90% won of 514 · whale$2.4K+$38K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Iran nuclear test before 2027?"?
356 wallets hold a position worth $51K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 355 of them. The largest Yes holder is Discombobulator7, with $410 on it, $3.9K lifetime loss over 2 markets (0% won). The largest No holder is Talophex, with $9.7K on it, $43K lifetime profit over 1,060 markets (94% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Iran nuclear test before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $281K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
28% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 60 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 60 points. A week ago, No by 61 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.